What Americans Believe
David Brooks repeatedly tells us in his column and television and radio commentary that the public is “leaning against [health care] reform, at least as currently envisioned by the White House and the Congressional leadership.” Of course he’s just following the polls, which may seem to bear him out::
(Data and chart: Pollster.com. Each dot represents a poll conducted by a reputable polling organization between late April, on the left, and early September, on the right. If one takes this very literally one could argue that there’s been an upturn in support for the Democratic reform proposals since early August.)
But there’s a problem with these polls: almost no one surveyed knows what’s in the proposed legislation. And the major media aren’t wasting much time telling them. The “plan” that people increasingly oppose would, in the minds of many respondents in a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, “give health insurance coverage to illegal immigrants” (55%), “lead to a government takeover of the health care system” (54%), “use taxpayer funds to pay for women to have abortions” (50%), and “allow the government to make decisions about when to stop providing medical care to the elderly” (45%). Indeed more people believe each of these things than oppose the plan itself (42%).
So let’s pause to consider what constitutes genuine belief. Belief, ideally, should be based on knowledge. So, is genuine belief opinion held now but not, perhaps, three weeks from now when “facts” change? Or is it opinion held over months or years under stable conditions of knowledge? David Brooks’s answer is apparently the former. A rational answer is the latter.
Suppose the pollsters’ question about health care reform were reformulated by anchoring it to a bit of knowledge, as was in fact done in the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll:
| “Now I am going to tell you more about the health care plan that President Obama supports and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose it. The plan requires that health insurance companies cover people with pre-existing medical conditions. It also requires all but the smallest employers to provide health coverage for their employees, or pay a percentage of their payroll to help fund coverage for the uninsured. Families and individuals with lower- and middle-incomes would receive tax credits to help them afford insurance coverage. Some of the funding for this plan would come from raising taxes on wealthier Americans. Do you favor or oppose this plan?” |
Here are the results:
Evidently a stable majority of Americans supports the plan when they have some knowledge about it. These results suggest that support would stabilize at above 50 percent if people were ever to become better informed.
When there’s so large a discrepancy between informed and uninformed belief, surely that tells us there’s something seriously wrong with the information people have to help them form their opinions—which tells us there’s something seriously wrong with the major media, the main source of information people have about the proposed legislation.
Let’s examine another genuine—i.e., stable—belief:
(Data: Gallup)
There appears to be a dip in 2008, but I wouldn’t make too much of it. Belief in a governmental role in ensuring that people have health care coverage seems relatively stable. Thus we can, I think, infer that Americans regard health care as a right, as something the government has a responsibility to guarantee.
Long-term stabilities of belief are revealing, but so are long-term trends. In the last decade two issues, access to health care and health care/insurance costs, have emerged as by far the biggest concerns Americans have about health care. More than half of respondents in Gallup polls now cite one or the other as their top concern:
And of course access to health care and health care/insurance costs are the primary issues health care reform is designed to address.
Why these long-term trends? I suspect the cause is other long-term trends, like this one:
I was aware of our own special brand of health care rationing—price—but I hardly expected these numbers. Around 30 percent of households in each of the last three years say they’ve put off medical treatment because of cost.
Knowledge solidifies over time, perhaps through reasoning, perhaps through experience, but not through listening to talking heads whom most people don’t trust anyway. And mainly what Americans have had on the issue of health care reform thus far are talking heads. So I wouldn’t expect poll results that record fickle opinions of the moment to reflect genuine belief.
Brooks has a different take. Writes Brooks:
| This is a country that has always been suspicious of centralized government. This is a country that has just lived through an economic trauma caused by excessive spending and debt.[*] Most Americans still admire Obama and want him to succeed. But if he doesn’t proceed in a manner consistent with the spirit of the nation and the times, voters will find a way to stop him. |
For Brooks, fickle opinions of the moment are more than just expressions of genuine belief; they reflect transcendent truths about the American “spirit.”
But all dross aside, historically speaking the times are ripe for health care reform.
*This second sentence might seem a non sequitur. The crisis was caused by “excessive spending and debt,” yes, but not excessive government spending and debt. The crisis had nothing to do with “centralized government,” but with the opposite, deregulation. Even granting Brooks’s conservative mindset, it’s hard to see what’s going on in his mind here.
Where the Economy is and Where It's (Apparently) Going
Some Reality about Deficits
Armageddon: The Aftermath
The Hype
How to Explain It
Is Health Care Reform Popular?
The Point of the Public Plan
The Context of Health Care Reform
Addendum
Is Low Life Expectancy the Fault of Our Health Care System?
American Health Care: Best in the World?
Is 76.5 Large?
NBC-WSJ Poll
Inside the Asylum
More About Bubbles
Why Did Economists Miss the Housing Bubble?
Why Has Monetary Policy Been so Ineffective?
The Geithner Plan
Is 22.2 Large?
Economics: A Theoretical Divide
The New Deal and the Great Depression
Stimulus By the Skin of Our Teeth
The Difference Between Dems and Repubs
The Interregnum
Postmortem
Obama and McCain on Tax Cuts and Health Care
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