The Statistical Truth Nonrandom Thoughts and Data 

by Matt Carlson

August 23, 2009
The NBC-Wall Street Journal Poll (released Wednesday)




Reporters must stop using the word “overhaul” to describe Obama’s healthcare reform plan. If what Obama wants is “overhaul,” then what do single-payer advocates want? “Major reform” is a fair descriptor. And note that that’s what a plurality of people claim they want.

What’s striking to me is how little change there’s been in public sentiment about healthcare reform in recent months. Note the stasis from July to August:





A possible interpretation: President Obama’s increased involvement in the debate hasn’t reversed, but may have halted, the negative slide. And when the Obama plan is explained somewhat, support seems solid. The responses graphed below were given to the following question:

“Now I am going to tell you more about the health care plan that President Obama supports and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose it. The plan requires that health insurance companies cover people with pre-existing medical conditions. It also requires all but the smallest employers to provide health coverage for their employees, or pay a percentage of their payroll to help fund coverage for the uninsured. Families and individuals with lower- and middle-incomes would receive tax credits to help them afford insurance coverage. Some of the funding for this plan would come from raising taxes on wealthier Americans. Do you favor or oppose this plan?”



The story in all of these graphs is what has happened to the “No opinion/Not sure” group. A portion has gravitated to the supportive category and a (larger) portion to the unsupportive category. But there’s little left in this group. So possibly opinions about healthcare reform have solidified.

But there are depressors:



Lies of the right have obviously wormed their way into the public consciousness. The good news is that countering them requires only the truth, albeit it must be shouted.

And here may be the brightest spot:



The Republican onslaught has damaged Obama, but not as much as it has the Republicans.
Other Postings
The Point of the Public Plan
The Context of Health Care Reform
Addendum
Is Low Life Expectancy the Fault of Our Health Care System?
What Americans Believe
American Health Care: Best in the World?
Is 76.5 Large?
Inside the Asylum
More About Bubbles
Why Did Economists Miss the Housing Bubble?
Why Has Monetary Policy Been so Ineffective?

The Geithner Plan
Is 22.2 Large?
Economics: A Theoretical Divide
The New Deal and the Great Depression
Stimulus By the Skin of Our Teeth
The Interregnum
Postmortem
Obama and McCain on Tax Cuts and Health Care
Religion and the New Atheism
Home